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Table 5 Risk-adjusted added-value pharmaceutical net present value (NPV) (Blair 2008)

From: Valuations using royalty data in the life sciences area—focused on anticancer and cardiovascular therapies

Trial phase

Cumulative risk

NPV ($US million)

Risk adjusted eNPV ($US million)

II

III

Pre-registration

Registration

Base-case

CDx enhanced

Baseline attrition ratesa

 0.52

0.76

0.89

0.94

0.331

892

 

295

CDx adjusted attrition ratesb

 0.57

0.81

0.4

0.99

0.429

 

2694

1157

  1. a Data on file at PJB PharmaPredict (http://www.pjbpubs.com/pharmaprojects_plus/predict.htm) and EvaluatePharma® (http://www.evaluatepharma.com/)
  2. b Primary research with industry experts
  3. CDx = companion diagnostic test; eNVP = expected NPV